President Donald Trump's visit to China this week was a masterclass in diplomatic optics, where the art of the deal was less about tangible outcomes and more about setting the tone and projecting power. While the trip may have lacked immediate deals to address frictions over tech and trade, it was a resounding success for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who carefully crafted a spectacle of pomp and pageantry to impress the American president. The visit was a strategic move by Beijing to assert its status as an equal to the US on the global stage and to direct the tone of the relationship, particularly regarding Taiwan.
One of the key takeaways from the trip is the importance of optics in international relations. China's diplomats knew that the visit afforded them an opportunity to showcase their country's power and prestige. From a military gun salute to a rare trip inside the secretive Communist Party leadership compound, Zhongnanhai, the Chinese side crafted a spectacle designed to impress Trump. And the US president reflected back just the kind of optics that China's foreign policy establishment will relish. Trump's arrival in Beijing with a phalanx of top American CEOs, who were there to "pay their respect" to Xi and to China, spoke volumes about Beijing's status and played well for Xi domestically and abroad.
In my opinion, the visit was a strategic move by Xi to assert his country's power and prestige. By carefully crafting a spectacle of pomp and pageantry, Xi was able to project China as an alternative leader to the US and to direct the tone of the relationship. The visit was also a strategic move by Beijing to buy time to continue its rise across technological, military, and geopolitical fronts. US tech controls and tariffs can upend supply chains and hurt companies, slowing that momentum.
The trip also highlighted the importance of Taiwan in the US-China relationship. China's Communist Party has never controlled Taiwan but views the island as an integral part of its territory. Absorbing it into China, by force if necessary, is central to Beijing's vision for its "national rejuvenation" by 2049. Xi didn't miss a beat in making this point, even subtly. In his toast welcoming Trump to the banquet, the Chinese leader drew a parallel between Trump's "Make America Great Again" ethos and his own vision of a "great rejuvenation." Trump, in turn, told Fox News' Bret Baier in an interview that "nothing has changed" about the United States' policy toward Taiwan during the trip, but he also said that the two had "talked the whole night about that issue." This raises a deeper question: how will the US handle its unofficial relationship with Taiwan in the wake of the trip?
In my opinion, the US-China relationship is a delicate balance of power and prestige. While a stable relationship can have positive effects for the global economy, its frictions can also upend trade. The trip highlighted the importance of managing this balance carefully, particularly regarding Taiwan. The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with weapons for its defense, and a pause on the $14 billion arms deal would mark a significant win for China. The visit also opened up the next major touchpoint for the two leaders, with Xi accepting Trump's invitation to visit the US in the fall. This raises the question of whether the two leaders will be able to extend their period of goodwill and continue to manage the delicate balance of power and prestige in the US-China relationship.
